연구정보
[경제] Pakistan - Country Climate and Development Report : Annex 2 - Climate Macro Modeling for Pakistan : Methodology and Assumptions
파키스탄 국외연구자료 연구보고서 World Bank 발간일 : 2023-03-01 등록일 : 2023-03-12 원문링크
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There are deep uncertainties about future climate-related events and how best to model their transmission pathways. Due to high future uncertainty and the limitations of existing macro models, any economy wide assessment of climate change related damages will be incomplete, especially as projections include events that may occur decades out from today. Model results essentially show averages that, at best, represent a lower bound of climate damage estimates. Nevertheless, such models can help us identify key transmission channels that are especially relevant for Pakistan and help estimate their human and economic impact. For the Pakistan CCDR, this has been done with the help of two macroeconomic models, MFMod and E3ME, each of which provides a different lens on the potential size of aggregate and sectoral impacts due to underlying differences in the models. Triangulating between two models affords greater insight into the transmission of climate shocks and a better sense of the robustness of the results. The distributional impact of climate change on poverty and equity is evaluated using microsimulation techniques which use the outputs of the macro models and data from national household.
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