중동부유럽
연구정보
[경제] On the Aggregation of Probability Assessments: Regularized Mixtures of Predictive Densities for Eurozone Inflation and Real Interest Rates
중동부유럽 일반 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - FRB of Philadelphia 발간일 : 2021-02-16 등록일 : 2021-02-25 원문링크
We explore a variety of objectives and regularization penalties, and we use them in a substantive exploration of Eurozone inflation and real interest rate density forecasts. All individual inflation forecasters (even the ex post best forecaster) are outperformed by our regularized mixtures. From the Great Recession onward, the optimal regularization tends to move density forecasts’ probability mass from the centers to the tails, correcting for overconfidence.
본 페이지에 등재된 자료는 운영기관(KIEP) 및 EMERiCs의 공식적인 입장을 대변하고 있지 않습니다.
| 이전글 | [경제] 유럽, 보험회사 기후변화 리스크 도입 논의 | 2021-02-25 |
|---|---|---|
| 다음글 | [경제] EEAG Report on the European Economy 2021 - Beyond the Coronavirus Crisis: I... | 2021-02-25 |
