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[국제관계] Envisioning a Comprehensive Peace Agreement for Afghanistan

아프가니스탄 국외연구자료 연구보고서 - RAND 발간일 : 2019-12-10 등록일 : 2021-01-20 원문링크

Throughout years of halting attempts to negotiate an end to the war in Afghanistan, the conflict parties articulated only the barest outlines of envisioned outcomes. By not spelling out their preferred terms for peace, the parties reinforced resistance to a peace process and fed fears of what compromise with the enemy might bring. An effective peace process will require filling this gap. With the aim of sparking the imaginations of policymakers on all sides of the conflict and others interested in encouraging negotiations, this report paints a detailed picture of a plausible political settlement.

To provide concrete ideas, the authors chose to write a peace agreement rather than write about one, translating their research and analysis into the format of a comprehensive peace accord. Their intent is to lay out realistic compromises that could satisfy the parties' interests and stand some chance of actually being implemented for the most important issues. The issues addressed include cessation of hostilities, political and security power-sharing, foreign troop withdrawal, constitutional reform, transitional mechanisms, and monitoring and verification. The authors researched the probable negotiation goals of the conflict parties; studied past peace agreements, both for Afghanistan and for many other countries around the world; and conducted extensive in-person confidential consultations with people associated with all sides of the conflict and with states neighboring Afghanistan, as well as experts on Afghanistan and peace processes. Beyond the report's main purpose, its methodology and supporting comparative analysis will benefit conflict resolution practitioners broadly.

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