아프리카ㆍ중동

The article highlights the benefits of adopting the practice of long-term planning with the aim of helping decision makers and politicians to include scenario thinking in the process of determining food security in Israel, 2050. This study addresses the question of food security, a step that is in contrast with agricultural planning considerations of the past that have mainly focused on maximizing profits or relied on a closed mathematical model. Two teams of experts identified production limitations affecting long-term planning and the ability to ensure food security under these conditions. It was found that there are five key factors important for the decision process: population, land, water, technology and international trade. The data show that today Israel imports a very large scale of virtual land and virtual water in terms of agricultural products. This means that the attention of the decision makers must be diverted from considerations of short-term profit to long-term food security.